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Assignment 2

Sep 12, 20244 min read

1. Hypotheses 

A)

  • On July 13, during a speech in Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump was the target of an attempted assassination attempt; during the speech, multiple gunshots from an ar-style rifle were heard, and Trump was hit by one of them, barely grazing his ear; otherwise unharmed. After the first few shots rang off, the Secret Service finally went to cover Trump, with a remarkably slow response; meanwhile, Trump was making gestures such as raising his fist. Once the shooter was neutralized, Trump was escorted out, and then he was able to make the same gesture, which caused the crowd to cheer. 

B)

  • Was the assassination attempt on Donald Trump in Pennsylvania staged to boost his popularity? 

C) Hypotheses 

  1. The assassination attempt on Trump was genuine and not staged. 
  2. The assassination attempt on Trump was staged to boost his popularity. 

D) Plausibility  

  1. Hypothesis 1: The hypothesis that the attempt was staged suggests that Trump’s team organized it to elicit public sympathy and solidify his support base. Political stunts are not unprecedented, yet arranging an assassination attempt involves significant risk and coordination, diminishing its likelihood. Prior experience with similar high-risk stunts in political history could provide a basis, but the boundaries and as much as I dislike trump and his voter base, the risk of shooting Trump himself makes the initial plausibility moderate—around 35%. However, that does not rule out it was an extremist whose goal is to miss Trump and make him look like a hero. 
  2. Hypothesis 2: The hypothesis that the attempt was genuine is consistent with the typical occurrence of politically motivated violence. Historical precedence shows that public figures often face threats. Given that trump is disliked by majority of people outside his voter base and the intense political climate, a genuine assassination attempt is highly plausible. The likelihood of external actors planning such an attempt aligns with historical and contemporary political dynamics. Therefore, a high prior plausibility of about 65% is reasonable. 

2. Evidence 

A)

  • A federal investigation report released on July 14 confirmed the shooter was a part of trumps voter base, being a registered republican.  

B) Evidence Strength 

  1. Hypothesis 1 (Staged Attempt): If the shooter were part of Trump’s voter base, it might initially seem to support the idea that the event could have been staged. However, the shooter also did donate to a democrat foundation before Bidens inauguration, and the risk involved with the chance of killing Trump, as well as the fact the shooter did kill innocent people  
  2. Hypothesis 2 (Genuine Attempt): The evidence aligning the shooter with Trump’s voter base might indicate a complex case of fanaticism where an individual from his own base, disillusioned or driven by extreme motives, carried out the attack, compounded with Trumps softening of rightwing extremist rhetoric. This aligns more closely with genuine attempts by individuals with personal grievances or political extremities, rather than an orchestrated political stunt. 

Given this evidence: 

P(Evidence | Hypothesis 1): Low (20%) 

P(Evidence | Hypothesis 2): High (80%) 

The shooter being a part of Trump’s voter base strengthens the notion that the attack was genuine, reflecting internal fragmentation or lone-wolf extremism rather than a carefully staged event.

3) Bayes’ Rule

  • let

A)

B)

  • Based on Bayes’ Rule, the posterior probability strongly favors the genuine attempt hypothesis (88.14%) over the staged attempt hypothesis (11.86%). This conclusion supports the notion that the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was more likely genuine and not staged.

Sources

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